Achieving 50x50
The regional goal to conserve 50% of the 10-county Bay Area by 2050 was set by the CLN 2.0 Steering Committee in 2019, and adopted as a long-term priority of TOGETHER Bay Area in 2023. The 50×50 goal is based on CLN computer modeling and local expert opinion..
Why 50%
It is well documented that the Bay Area is a U.S. Biodiversity Hotspot. It is also home to 7.8 million human beings. Urbanized and urbanizing areas like the Bay Area require a significant level of conservation — such as 50% — because their ecosystems are more fragmented and pressured by human activity. In addition, the climate and topography that draws people here from all around the world is also attractive to a wide array of flora and fauna, from migrating birds along the Pacific Flyway to endemic plants, such as the Santa Cruz wallflower, and so much more. The CLN project’s scientific modeling of priority lands, which assessed which lands are essential to meeting habitat-specific goals, resulted in acreage totals that equated to approximately half the land in the Bay Area. In order to match the increased pressures on the landscapes and ecosystems, the region requires the conservation of more ecologically important acres.
Why 2050?
While the impacts of the climate and biodiversity crises are already being experienced here locally and across the globe, around 2050 is when most climate models agree that weather extremes caused by the climate crisis will sharply increase. A connected, conserved, and resilient network of strategically conserved and stewarded lands will need to be established by then to stave off the worst impacts.
Are we on track?
Conserving 50×50 may seem like a daunting task. Yet it is achievable! Because of the region’s long and successful track record of land conservation, the region could achieve 50×50 if there is significant and stable public funding for conservation and increased regional coordination (see Figure X.). Indeed, the current trajectory of conservation in the San Francisco Bay Area reveals a gap of about 330,000 acres by 2050. Therefore, the region will have to pull together and increase our pace over the next 25 years. We know the region is up for the challenge.
The Bay Area’s 50×50 goal can lift up other regional conservation goals around the state. For example, TOGETHER Bay Area’s participation in California’s 30×30 movement not only benefits the Bay Area but lands and communities across the state. And our efforts to secure significant and stable funding, (e.g., state budget allocations for the State Coastal Conservancy), will benefit landscapes, ecosystems, and communities up and down the state. While 50×50 is a goal for the Bay Area, it can lift up conservation work throughout California and help advance the state’s goal of 30×30.
Identifying the most consequential lands
The CLN focuses on habitats and biodiversity as central to its strategy for preserving the region’s natural heritage. By mapping and prioritizing a range of habitat types, the CLN aims to protect diverse ecosystems supporting both rare and common species. This habitat-based approach allows for the conservation of species, ecological processes, and large, connected areas crucial for maintaining genetic diversity and ecosystem resilience.
With area-based goals like 30×30 and 50×50, it is important to remember that not all areas provide the same ecological benefits or are equally important to the ecological integrity of an ecoregion. It is not enough to simply meet the area goal in terms of total acreage: the type of land matters immensely.
For instance, the 50% achieved in the Bay Area needs to be the most beneficial 50% of land types. To determine the highest priority lands, it is critical for the conservation community to come together and, aided by sound scientific techniques, identify the most important 50% to target for conservation. In developing the 50×50 goal and granular habitat-based targets, the CLN serves as a model for how conservation communities can collaborate to drive large conservation wins.
Are 50x50 and 30x30 related?
The CLN’s biodiversity conservation goal of 50×50 and the state of California’s goal of 30×30 are related, and they support one another. The regionally coordinated conservation work underpinning 50×50 has been active for several decades, and we are excited to see similar area-based proportional goals gaining traction in recent years. We view them as powerful rally points that drive conservation efforts to new levels that are also rooted in science.
The state’s 30×30 initiative is helping to drive conservation in the Bay Area as it is elsewhere. The CLN’s goal of 50×50 reflects the need in urban and urbanizing areas — such as the Bay Area, Sacramento, Los Angeles, San Diego, and others — to aim for a higher conservation proportion. The pressures on the environment caused by human activity and the fragmentation of the landscape are greater in these areas. As fragmentation and other human-related stressors increase, so do the chances of destroying important connections between remaining habitat patches and watercourses. Both initiatives point to a future where biodiversity persists and the ecosystems on which people depend are healthy and functioning in the face of climate change.
Conservation benefits biodiversity — and people
50×50 is a goal to ensure the Bay Area’s biodiversity and ecosystem processes are resilient enough to withstand the pressures of human activity and climate change. However, there is legitimate debate about their impact on people and land-use needs. While 50×50’s primary aim is to safeguard ecosystems for people and wildlife, some may argue that such ambitious targets can sometimes overlook or conflict with human needs, particularly in terms of housing and agriculture — especially where land is already in high demand.
However, we argue that human well-being and land conservation are highly interdependent. In fact, in the Bay Area, conservation efforts incorporate sustainable development goals, support livelihoods, and improve ecosystem services for people, all of which directly benefit communities. Often, the challenge lies in finding a balance and understanding the trade-offs between protecting biodiversity and ensuring equitable land use for humans. The Conservation Lands Network aids in finding that balance by articulating where the ecosystem — and we humans — would lose the most should we develop those areas.
One success story of striking this essential balance is found in the Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s (MTC) Plan Bay Area 2050, a bold regional framework outlining strategies across transportation, housing, the environment, and the economy for the period 2021 through 2050. The MTC plan incorporated CLN data frameworks and mapping tools to ensure that CLN-identified Essential, Important, and Connector lands in each county will be considered as part of MTC’s broad strategy in building a sustainable and resilient Bay Area now and into the future.
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